ΣLottosigma

Analyses: observed versus expected

Each statistic on this page is shown next to the value you would expect if the draws were purely random. The expected values are calculated exactly (closed-form formulas over all 2,118,760 combinations), not simulated. The result in advance: everywhere, what we observe stays within the range of chance.

868 draws · 19.06.2018 – 13.10.2026 · Exact expected values under the hypothesis of uniform 5-from-50 draws

How close together are the five numbers?

The linear span is the distance from the smallest to the largest number (end positions included). The circular span reads the numbers 1 to 50 on a circle where 50 touches 1: the draw 4, 5, 7, 48, 50 is then no longer spread over 47 positions but concentrated on 10. The bars show the distribution of draws by span, observed and expected.

Linear span

Mean: observed 34.9, expected 35.0

Observed Expected
5–9 0 / 1.2
10–14 12 / 10.1
15–19 31 / 32.3
20–24 69 / 68.1
25–29 122 / 113.1
30–34 150 / 157.4
35–39 184 / 186.3
40–44 187 / 179.7
45–49 107 / 112.7
50–50 6 / 7.1

Circular span

Mean: observed 28.9, expected 28.8

Observed Expected
5–9 0 / 1.4
10–14 16 / 13.2
15–19 48 / 48.0
20–24 112 / 118.7
25–29 234 / 236.6
30–34 324 / 322.7
35–39 134 / 126.8
40–41 0 / 0.5

The tightest draws

A circular span of at most 10 has a probability of 0.30% for a random draw. We therefore expected 2.6 such draws; there were 2.

DateWinning numberscircularlinear
03.04.202616202124251010
02.10.202633364041421010
12.10.201812131521221111
30.04.20214689491146
23.11.202115162122251111
10.12.202410131718201111
21.03.202335384044461212
22.03.202419222328301212
26.04.202437404243481212
14.01.2020561215171313
27.09.202219232729311313
29.10.2024481149501347

What carries over from the previous draw?

For each draw, we count how many of its five numbers were already in the immediately preceding draw. The expected distribution is hypergeometric: 5 drawn from 50, of which 5 are marked.

Exact repeats

Mean: observed 0.532, expected 0.500

Observed Expected
0 475 / 499.9
1 327 / 304.8
2 61 / 58.1
3 4 / 4.1
4–5 0 / 0.1

Neighbours of the previous draw

Average number of winning numbers that are direct neighbours (±1, circular) of a number in the previous draw, without having been drawn in it themselves.

0.847
Observed
0.881
Expected

The last draw contains no information about the next one. Replaying the latest numbers or their neighbours gives exactly the same chances as any other combination.

The slip as a heat map

The 50 numbers in rows of ten. The darker the cell, the more often the number was drawn. The expected value is the same for all; the differences are the normal spread of a binomial distribution.

All time

868 draws · Expected: 86.8 / Number · min 71, max 110

1962913754855856867948889851078
118512861375141101592169517801889191012098
21982294238024782596268027892871291023086
3181328033843490357436903786387839864077
4178428843884484459646964774488949855088

Last 100 draws

100 draws · Expected: 10.0 / Number · min 4, max 18

1828364105864712812991010
1171261361413151016141712189199208
21142282317241125926727142872913304
311132123373493510361837938639124016
411442134311441145846104774814499508

The gap between the rarest and the most frequent number looks large, but it is exactly what you expect from 50 independent counts. Over the last 100 draws the relative spread is even larger because the sample is smaller.

How long does a number stay absent?

For each number we measure the gap in draws between two appearances. If the draws are independent, this gap follows a geometric distribution with probability 5/50 ≈ 10.0% per draw: mean 10.0, and long absences are not rare, they are the rule.

4290 gaps measured · Mean: observed 9.90, expected 10.00

Observed Expected
1 461 / 429.0
2 389 / 386.1
3–4 652 / 660.2
5–7 746 / 762.8
8–10 580 / 556.1
11–15 624 / 612.6
16–20 329 / 361.7
21–30 326 / 339.7
31–40 114 / 118.4
41+ 69 / 63.4

The longest absence in the data is 76 draws. The probability that a given number stays absent that long is 0.04%; with 50 numbers it is bound to happen eventually. The longest current absence is 54 draws. A number that has been absent for a long time is therefore not "due": the balls have no memory.

My combination

Enter five numbers: has this combination been drawn before? Which draws came closest?

Everything runs in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. That a combination has never been drawn is normal: out of 2,118,760 possible combinations only a tiny fraction has ever come up.

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